As you remember, if read our last blog, in 10 games statistically there will come one surprise. And what a surprise that was! Even we could not believe it during the game. @MyCoazhFootball Full Time Estimation after first half in 1-2 situation was still 2-2 and overtime win for England. But Iceland thought differently, survived and to tell the truth wasn’t even pushed into limits. England was colourless, tasteless and not willing… they could not create anything. They were afraid of losing and eventually, that was just what happened.
Picture 1: England’s tournament ended to a disappointment or should we say disaster (attacking upwards on the pitch). Goal scoring opportunities were quite even in this game, but look at all blue dots at ISL penalty box (ISL won balls), ENG could not penetrate to the danger zone mainly because they tried only by crosses.
MyCoazh before game Predictions of final results and numbers went quite well. Usually by just guessing, one can get one result out of ten right. MyCoazh got 3/8. We were wrong with winners of the games ENG – ISL and ITA – ESP. So before the game Predictions went right 6/8.
Picture 2: @MyCoazhFootball Estimated FT result Tweet made in intermission of the game WAL – NIR
MyCoazhFootball Full Time Estimation (EstFT), which are made at intermissions, went quite well, too. We could estimate the final results (goals) correct in 3 games out of 8. In two games the winner of the game was wrong, but still our estimation was right given this +- 1 goals for both teams. As I mentioned in earlier blog in sport of football, that +- 1 goal for each team is a huge problem, because it can and often will change the winner of the game. But our system is working, we can explain why goals are made and conceaded (explanation ratio 0.92 – 0.82) and of course if we can explain them, then we can predict them, too, with a little bit lower percentage.
Picture 3: POL – SUI 2-1 after penalties, MVP Kuba, in individual player statistics each Action has it’s own symbol
Now there are only 8 best teams left at EURO2016. POL – POR is going to be very interesting game both tactically and as a game. POL trusted their defensive system and it gave them place in quarter finals even thought they were underdogs after first half. Still Lewandowski and Milik combination is not working fully, but Blaszczykowski was the saver. POR surprised everyone with a very tactical approach. The most surprising thing was that all the star players and even Ronaldo were following tactics. That was a weird game and spectators did not like it at all, but tactical neards were thrilled. In that game there were only 2 shots on goal in that late goal scoring situation. One thing that we can’t figure out was, why CRO if they were “better” team, as almost every expert thought, did not dare to open play against POR. That is the reason, why they are now out, on this one, you can blame coaches! POR has really good late substitutes and Ricardo Quaresma will soon be called “super-sub”. If Lewy-Milik combination can’t create anything, this one is POR game. MyCoazh Predicts 1-2 final results.
Picture 4: POR – CRO 1-0 ot, POR got to play much better, if they want qualify
In second pair there will be small-surprise WAL – BEL. The game WAL – NIR was awful, if one watches it as a football romantic, but as a struggle of fight, it was tense. He we could very clearly see, what did it mean to take 24 teams to the tournament. Gareth Bale was the man on of the match, even thought old fashoned football rules, did not mark him as a goalscorer. BEL really showed they style against HUN by winning 0-4. Numbers were a little bit lying here, because HUN got chances, too, but could not score. BEL is eager and ready for scoring goals, but they defense is not yet tested. Still WAL will not be a test either. MyCoazh Predicts 0-2 final results.
Picture 5: WAL – NIR not a beautiful football to watch, when a pass after pass will not find a teammate, but perhaps interesting as a struggle
Picture 6: Team BEL Scouting Report: Team averadge 8,5 Team Activity 572, Strenghts: counter attacks, skill and bench, Weaknesses: defense and coaching
Picture 7: GER – SVK Die Mannschaft is ready for the next challenge
On the other side of the table, one Giant will have to leave once again. In GER – ITA someone is seeing a moral final, but that is not the case. GER did not have a problem what so ever against SVK, because of that Boateng’s early goal. GER looks very solid at the moment, they have strong bench too, but next game tell’s the truth. Still no goal in own net nor for Muller and he got full playing time and now he is not any more playing well. Maybe Löw knows better. ITA ended ESP tournament with no question what so ever. So far ESP’s lousy defense couldn’t be seen, but in this game it was so obvious. And no wonder: they had the very same problems 2 years ago at World Cup and there were the very same central defense (Ramos & Pique). Last time they changes Pique even though it was Ramos who played poorly. But this time I assume even the coaches saw the truth. GER – ITA game is very open, both have so far defended extremely well, but this time there will be goals for both nets. MyCoazh Predicts 2-1 German victory, probably overtime of penalties.
Picture 8: Tony Kroos’s Player Profile, Score 9,1 Activity 105, Strenghts: consistent, skillful, trustworth Weaknesses: if one could hope something more perhaps the will to score
Picture 9: ESP – ITA
On a last quarter final pair there is FRA – ISL. We wrote already once that ISL has run out of all the luck and that’s why they won’t qualify. We were so wrong, that was not pure luck. They just gave luck a chance and when ENG was not performing so well, they qualified. But this time the opponent is different level especially in their offensive playing. FRA was trailing 60 minutes IRL, but seriously they were not even near of losing that game. Statistically in 8 games there might come one surprise, but unfortunately not in four games, sorry all the Iceland fans! So MyCoazh Prediction of FRA – ISL is 3-1.
Picture 10: FRA – IRL, Griezmann scored two goals, but MVP was Matuidi! Very often the MoTM is the one who scores the goals as Griezmann did in this came, but he also missed two major chances and lost the ball 16 times out of 76. Meanwhile Matuidi, who has been strongly critizied from his performance, kept the ball in LesBleus with successrate of 94 and created two goal scoring opportunities.
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Let’s enjoy the games!
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This post was written by Juska