Football’s EURO2016 European Championships are now in the knock out phase. first 36 games were more or less just warm up for these real games. MyCoazh is doing estimations for the final results this time to one betting company. So far MyCoazh Estimated Full Time results has gone 24% right after first period (in every fourth game). After first period on 75 % of the games we know the winner of the game right but can’t estimate the correct numbers. MyCoazh Estimated Full Time relates to how the game will end if it continues the way the first period went.
The challenge of football is of course the fact that the meaning of one goal is so huge. Goals are rare and goals change the games! Altogether we can Estimate the final scores right +-1 goal for both teams at almost 90 procent of all games but for betting purposes that won’t much help, because there will still be usually 9 different options for how the game can end.
Here are MyCoazh Predictions of the final scores of round sixteen. Predictions are based on made game analyses: team Scores and Activities, expected Goals For (e-GF) and expected Goals Against (e-GA). Real time Estimations of the final scores (Estimated FT) can be follow real time at MyCoazh Football Twitter.
Picture 1: MyCoazh Video predictive game analysis is always made from one team’s point of view and that team attacks upwards on the pitch. Green dots are successful actions and red failed ones. Arrows are shots. From opponent MyCoazh marks only shots. There will be an action every time a player and a ball have a contact. Game analysis (below) of FRA – ROU 2-1 shows that FRA played well. Team Score was 8,1 and Activity 612, passing percentage in short passes was 90. FRA won the shots 13-9 and especially shots on goal by 5-2. The most valuable player of the game (MVP) was Payet, whose Score (Grade) was full 10 and Activity (ball contacts) 76.
SUI – POL is a very interesting game. Both have played well so far. MyCoazh Predicts 1-2 victory on overtime/penalties for Poland.
Picture 2: Poland has a very solid team especially in offensive sense. Below a game analysis of POL-NIR 1-0 game: shots on goal 4-1, 102 successful passes at the final third and altogether 5 breaking passes. With this kind of statistics a team usually makes one goal and so did Poland, too. They had total dominance of the game, but they could not score effectively.
CRO – POR This is one of the most interesting game in this phase. Both are quality teams but of course set up is a little bit different if Luka Modric can’t play. Surely he will have a try. Cristiano Ronaldo has struggled with goal scoring problems but it’s not a problem whatsoever because he is able to create and have a lot of scoring opportunities. And for sure, he will score sooner or later. Both teams can score and MyCoazh Predicts 2-3 victory for Portugal.
Picture 3. Ronaldo’s individual player statistics from Hungary game: Ronaldo has a “free” playing position and he had some problems in first two games, but that goal scoring will is everything – eventually it paid off.
WAL – NIR Who could have thought? Both will fight hard, but only one team has Bale. So the winner will be Wales in this 1-0 game.
HUN – BEL One of the biggest suprises so far has been Hungary’s performance. Couple of their players really know how to shoot ball technically brilliantly. But Belgium is such a good and solid team that they will qualify. MyCoazh Predicts 1-2 final score.
Picture 4: Belgium team has potential to go far in this tournament. Below game analysis of BEL – IRL 3-0 game. The only question mark was that they allowed IRL to have scoring chances too: 16 red dots at defense (failed actions at last defensive third).
GER – SVK Germany has been one of the most confident teams so far. They have created so many chances in all their meaningful games that the only question mark is when will Thomas Muller start to score? Whether Muller scores or not Germany will and wins 2-0.
Picture 5: Do not underestimate German ability to tournament coaching. GER – UKR 2-0 game: strong defense and dynamic duo Kroos & Khedira at the bottom of the midfield, Götze not good enough at offense.
ITA – ESP One thing is for sure. One of the giants has to go already at this stage. Spain and Italy have totally different sthrengths: Italy is strong defensively and Spain offensively. So, very interesting game to see. MyCoazh Predicts tikitaka-win 0-1.
Picture 6: Defense against offense. Can Italy’s defense hold 90 minutes this tikitaka? ESP – TUR 3-0 offense excellent, but the question marks in ESP side are at central defense (Ramos and Pique).
FRA – ROI Home team France got a really easy way out in this phase. The difference between these two teams is huge and we have seen only one game so far where Les Bleus really tried full 90 minutes. This time there will be a lot of goals and MyCoazh Predicts 3-0 victory.
Picture 7: Payet, one of the best players of the tournament so far
ENG – ISL England has an easy way to go through as the most suprising and symphathetic team Iceland has already run out of gas and all the luck they have had. But they will fight for it and MyCoazh Prediction is 1-0.
Picture 8: Roy Hodgson has a positive problem because he has many options where to choose but Dier will be at the bottom of the midfield. With this kind of dominance you should win the game: shots altogether 24-2!
So let see how well these Predictions go right. From hundreds of game analysis made earlier, we know that in one game out of ten there will be a suprise winner. 9 out of 10 will end as expected. Fortunately though the ball is round and in one football game anything can happen.
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This post was written by Juska