EURO2016: Semi Finals

Only four teams left at EURO2016. But how did we come to this? MyCoazhFootball predicted correctly 3 of 4 semifinal teams. In one match numbers in prediction were exactly right, too. Just by guessing one will get 1 out of 10 correct. With MyCoazh the numbers are 1 out of 4. When we use term predict, we mean trying to know the winner and the final result correct before the game. To do this prediction we need to have a couple of game analyses done from that team and the opening line up. Of course the “quality of competition” plays a role too which means the level of the opponent. At EURO2016 we have made analyses of both teams. Then it is pure matematics: we are calculating eGF – eGA (Expected Goals For – Expected Goals Against) and that’s our Prediction. In Round 16 we predicted 6 teams to qualify right and 3 final results of 8 correct.

Expected Goals are the hottest hot in the analytics of football at the moment. One of the most interesting ways of doing it is how @11tegen11 does it: he has after analyzing thousands of games by Opta statistics, calculated a value between 0 and 1 of the most important events in games (for example for every different kind of shoot and where was is shot) which adds the probability of a goal. His work is worth reading if analytics interests you (www.11tegen11.net). He has made some very informative passing maps, too. MyCoazh can and will do the same. We are estimating the final results of the game in intermissions (Estimated Full Time) and that estimation is based purely on the events of first period and same kind of calculation where we have estimated what it takes to score a goal at football (our data consists of almost 2 000 games). One has to understand that our Predictions and Estimations do not take into consideration the statistical history of football games or the match history of two teams. Estimated FT is purely matematics about expected goals if the game continues as it has gone so far. As far as we know MyCoazh is in that respect a unique system in explaining the results of games by using player or team Scores. In 85 percent of all games it explains right why the team won, played a draw or lost. Score is calculated for individual player by his actions: every action counts and if a player manage to score, assist or pass a breaking pass he’ll get some extra plus. And the other way around with errors or errors leading to a goal scoring chance for opponent.

In Quarter finals MyCoazhFootball half time estimations we knew the final results correct in one game but all the others went wrong. Estimated 0-0 was after penalties 1-2, 2-2 was 3-1 and 5-0 was 5-2. Usually our estimation is right in 1 out of 4 games and almost all games within +- 1 goal/each team. This time this was not the case.

POL-POR Lewandowski scored a long waited early goal but after that POL gave the possession to POR and that was a mistake. Renato Sanches showed why everybody is talking about him and equalized the game in the first half. Second half and extra time did not offer much and penalties were this time for POR. The unlucky one was Kuba but that’s the way story goes with penalties.  Someone must fail and the pressure is always on shooter because you are supposed to succeed. In penalty there is approximately 0.70 chance to score. In an earlier blog we wrote that Richardo Quaresma can be already called Super-Sub and he and Moutinho pretty much made the difference. So far Quaresma has entered the game 4 times from the bench and had about 25 ball contacts in them and been extremely efficient. He has scored 2 decisive goals and assisted one goal and created 5 scoring chances. POR had substitute players that made the difference meanwhile POL bench did not help much. It is fair to say that the right team qualified. Officially Sanches was selected as a MoTM but Quaresma and goalie Patricio were Most Valuable Players in respect of winning the game. So POR through and their playing looks good. They can make both tactical and player moves that can change the games. They are not the favourites of the crowd because of Pepe and partly Ronaldo and because they still haven’t won a game at this tournament in 90 minutes of playing.

Picture: Super-Sub Quaresma, could he make such a difference in the starting eleven?

WAL – BEL We said in blog that no more surprises in this tournament and still WAL qualified. Yes, but in this game it was not surprise. They really deserved it because they were the better team. MyCoazh Football made a Scouting Report of team BEL and stated that the biggest weaknesses of the team are defense and coaching. As BEL was forced to make the changes at defense due of injuries and suspensions their young defenders J.Lukaku and Denayer were put into too challenging situation. Denayer made 3 crucial defensive screening errors (lost his man) and as a result WAL scored twice. J.Lukaku made 3 huge defensive errors too but only in one of those occations WAL scored. The reason why defense had to face such events was the fact that after early goal by Nainggolan BEL gave WAL the ball possession. That was a decision made by coaches. And what a wrong one it was! After first period MyCoazhFootball estimated 2-2 full time. BEL was pushing in the second half but was inefficient. After Fellaini came in they tried mainly with crosses. There were at least two referee’s decisions which were against BEL and could have changed this game. There should have been penalty for foul against Nainggolan. Huge dissapointment for BEL and huge victory for TEAM WAL. In this game WAL was not depended so much on Gareth Bale but on Aaron Ramsey. Sad news is that Ramsey took a second yellow card and will miss the next game.

Picture: BEL – WAL ok doing in offense, but terrible defensive work

GER – ITA One of the Giants had to go and this time it was ITA. The game was boring. Defense vs. defense. It was like both wanted to go to overtime and even to penalties in order to loser being able to say that it is always a question of luck on penalties. And so is it. Have you ever seen so terrible GER penalties? First period was very tactical and carefull playing. Nothing indicated that there will be any goals scored in the game. GER had changed their tactical lineup to the same as ITA. It is funny that it is called 3-5-2 because it is actually 5-4-1. There are no 3 defensemen but 5. ITA screened Tony Kroos, the most influencial player of GER out of the game at first period. Kroos had only 25 ball contacts (Activity) in first half, as in Kroos’s Player Profile showed he has had average of 105 ball contacts in one game. In the second half after Özil’s goal it looked like GER will take charge over the game but then came some sort of black moment for Jerome Boateng. He will be some day an excellent center back but this was not yet the day. As we mentioned in Boateng’s Player Profile (all the games played so far in this tournament), he should leave the long passes to someone else. In first half he gave 9 long passes and only 3 found teammate! It’s a pity that such a great sportman as Gigi Buffon has to leave the tournament but nobody will miss Chiellini’s childish dives. GER got through but paid quite a high price of it: Gomez, Khedira and Schweinsteiger are out of semis due injuries and Hummels due suspension.

Picture: Kroos’s actions after first half, ITA screened him out of the ball

Picture: GER – ITA

FRA – ISL All the football fans (except the frenchmen) were secretly wishing that the fairy tail of ISL would continue. But it did not. Not a slightest chance. In this kind of tournament form they will allways be surprises. There are 24 countries and 16 of them will qualify. Yes ISL played their role perfectly and because of ENG been ENG and being afraid of winning important football matches they got so far. The difference between these two teams were quite near the final scores. ISL’s last game’s hero Arnason had a terrible game this time.  It was something an underdog can’t bear. FRA is a very strong team both in their offensive playing and in tactics. They were taking ISL very seriously and the brilliance of Griezmann, Pogba and Payet was just too much for the Vikings. All the credit for the ISL and they fans. They played the second half even the game was already over. Doing so they gave important information for GER to the semis about FRA’s defense. Some were thrilled about debutant central defenders’s Umtiti’s performance especially after he passed all of his 71 passes to his teammates but the central defenders first duty is to keep the clean sheet at own net and on that one he pretty much failed. He made 3 huge defensive errors and one of the screening errors lead to ISL goal. Some day he surely will be one of the best. Lucky for FRA they will get Rami back for the next game.

Picture: Umtiti 100 % passing accurancy, but look the defensive errors near own goal

Picture: Is Griezmann going to be the tournament’s Top Scorer?

Semi finals

POR – WAL This Semifinal is a very interesting and open game. Both teams have their strenghts and chances. A football game is always a question of team against team and first and second half. Teams are winning or losing games but this time it is a question about Ronaldo against Bale. Either one of them can decide the game. Ronaldo has made the difference so far only in one game, Bale in 2-3 games. The odds are a little bit on POR’s side especially, when WAL has to play without Aaron Ramsey. Goal expectations are 1,83 – 1,51 and MyCoazh is predicting 2-1 final results. Ricardo Quaresma or Ronaldo will be the Keyplayers and Gareth Bale of course on WAL side. It is interesting to see if POR coach will give Quaresma more playing time or will he keep him as a Super-Sub.

Picture: POR – WAL or Ronaldo – Bale

GER – FRA The other semifinal is the moral final of this tournament. These are the two best teams at EURO2016, no question about it. GER would have been the favourite but with so many injuries and suspension that is not the case anymore. On the other hand we have already witnessed what it is like when a next in line in Die Mannschaft is given responsibility.  Julian Draxler and Joshua Kimmich have been outstanding so far and when you have Podolski, Götze, Schurrle, Can and Mustafi at the bench you as a coach need not to worry. Still FRA’s offense has been the best at the tournament so far. The problem is that the defense is not at the same level. Evra is the weakest player on the semifinal defense lines. GER will for sure try take an advantage of that. GER coaches have a lot to think but they have prepared for everything. GER is the world’s best at tournament coaching in football, same as FIN is in ice hockey. MyCoazhFootball prediction is 2-2 after 90 minutes and place in the final for FRA after penalties. Keyplayers to watch are Griezmann, Payet, Pogba and Kante from FRA and Kroos, Özil, Boateng and Neuer in GER team but the game might be decided how will Evra and Mustafi & Boateng perform. One mistake in this kind of game and game can be over because goals change the games.

Picture : The moral final of the two best teams at the tournament GER – FRA

Picture: MyCoazhFootball App

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This post was written by Juska